Sunday, March 18, 2018

The Long and Winding Road to the Kentucky Derby

If you are following the prep races leading to the Kentucky Derby then you'll know what a muddled road it has been so far this year.  With a few stand-out performances from Bolt D'Oro and McKinzie, there have been few stars and lots of horses that have demonstrated mediocre performances who were expected to win their prep races.  And every now and then a new horse flashes up that was not on anyone's radar.   Yesterday at Oaklawn, a similar repeat - the favorite, Solomini, finished second to an unbeaten horse who had won only small races up until yesterday, Magnum Moon.  And Bob Baffert claims to have the winner in Justify, who never raced as a two-year-old. No unraced two-year-old has ever won the Derby.

There are still a few more major races on the calendar that will help determine who the favorite might be.  

Horses  acquire points based on their race results and this year it looks like it's going to take more point than usual.  There are few horses who are most likely "in" already but there is still so much up in the air this season.

These horses are most likely locked for the Derby:

1. Bolt d’Oro (64)
2. Enticed (63)
3. Bravazo (54)
5. Magnum Moon (50)
6Quip (50)
7McKinzie (40)
8Good Magic (34)
9. Solomini (34)


I would hold off any wagers until late April this year.  With the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes, the Florida Derby and others still left to run, there is no telling who is going to win the Run for the Roses in 2018.



















































































































 

































 





3rd, 2018 Risen Star (G2) View Video
Mar 24 - Louisiana Derby (G2)





2nd, GP AlwOC (2/4/2018-R8)
 





3rd, 2018 Swale (G3) View Video
 





1st, 2018 Mine That Bird Derby (LS) View Video
Mar 25 - Sunland Derby (G3)





1st, OP AlwOC (2/19/2018-R10)
Mar 25 - Sunland Derby (G3)





1st, 2018 Patton Stakes (LS) View Video
Mar 31 - UAE Derby (G2)





7th, 2018 Southwest Stakes (G3) View Video
Mar 24 - Louisiana Derby (G2)





5th, 2017 Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) View Video
 





7th, 2018 Rebel Stakes (G2)
 





5th, 2018 Fountain of Youth (G2) View Video
 





3rd, 2018 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) View Video
 





2nd, 2018 Fountain of Youth (G2) View Video
Mar 31 - Florida Derby (G1)





4th, 2018 Sam F. Davis (G3) View Video
 





10th, 2018 Rebel Stakes (G2)
Apr 14 - Lexington (G3)





6th, 2018 Fountain of Youth (G2) View Video
 





8th, 2018 Rebel Stakes (G2)
 





1st, 2018 Rebel Stakes (G2)
Apr 14 - Arkansas Derby (G1)





6th, 2018 Rebel Stakes (G2)
 





6th, 2018 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) View Video
 





3rd, 2018 Gotham (G3) View Video
Apr 7 - Blue Grass Stakes (G2)





7th, 2018 Fountain of Youth (G2) View Video
Mar 31 - Florida Derby (G1)





5th, 2018 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) View Video
 





4th, 2018 Risen Star (G2) View Video
Apr 7 - Santa Anita Derby (G1)





1st, 2017 Remington Springboard Mile (LS) View Video
Apr 14 - Lexington (G3)





1st, Tam MSW (1/20/2018-R7)
 





8th, 2018 Risen Star (G2) View Video
Mar 24 - Louisiana Derby (G2)





7th, 2018 Risen Star (G2) View Video
 





4th, 2018 Rebel Stakes (G2)
 



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